During the peak of the first wave of Covid-19, Europe has suffered a large number of care homes’ deaths due to Covid-19 infections. Several media coverages claimed the death toll could be attributed to governments polices. However, the lack of modelling of the disease infection in these LTC facilities left the interpretation of numbers to speculations. It’s publicly debated that the modelling of the infection spread in several countries, including the UK, didn’t include modelling for care homes. The mathematical modelling of infection spread necessary for this context is admittedly challenging; nevertheless, it’s essential to have to protect the vulnerable care home residents, the care workers and the wider public. This research blog suggests a framework for such a model and addresses some of the challenges involved. In doing so, it starts by explaining how the measuring of infection spread of Covid-19 in enclosed geographical areas like Wuhan and North Italy has been carried out before moving to discuss the more challenging case of care homes model.
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Director, Analytical Research Ltd, and Affiliate Research Fellow, Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
Mohamed Ismail is a quantitative researcher whose work develops mathematical and computational frameworks to better understand ageing dynamics and long-term care systems, with a particular focus on how time spent in care shapes future demand, costs, and system behaviour.
With a background spanning engineering, computer science, and mathematical finance, he brings a structured, model-based perspective to complex social challenges. His recent research focuses on duration-dependent processes, how individual-level dynamics translate into population-level outcomes, and the development of tractable models of ageing and long-term care.
His recent work includes the development of a new index-based framework for estimating long-term care needs in data-scarce settings, with evidence from the Middle East and North Africa, published in Population Health Metrics in 2026. His research also examines long-term care policies and financing in the region, including how care systems can be integrated into broader economic and social development strategies.
Mohamed began his career as a quantitative analyst with global financial institutions, including Merrill Lynch, HSBC, Mizuho Financial Group, and Credit Suisse, before transitioning to quantitative social research. In 2009, he founded Analytical Research Ltd, applying statistical and mathematical modelling to policy-relevant questions in ageing and care.
He has collaborated with academic and policy institutions across the UK, Europe, Australia, and the Middle East on research spanning population ageing, migration, and long-term care systems. His work appears in peer-reviewed journals and international policy reports, including contributions to reports by the U.S. Census Bureau, United Nations, World Bank, and World Health Organization.
Mohamed has been a core member of the MENARAH Network since 2019, contributing quantitative and interdisciplinary perspectives to research on ageing and long-term care in the Middle East and North Africa.
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