Purpose – The aim of this paper is to explore the effect of ethnicity and separate this from the other dynamics associated with migration among members of the long-term care workforce in England focusing on the nature and structure of their jobs. The analysis examines interactions between ethnicity, gender, and age, and their relations with “meso” factors related to the job and organizational characteristics and “macro” level factors related to local area characteristics. Design/methodology/approach – The paper analyses new national workforce data, the National Minimum Data Set for Social Care (NMDS-SC), n=357,869. The paper employs descriptive statistical analysis and a set of logistic regression models.
Findings – The results indicate that labour participation of British black and minority ethnic (BME) groups in long-term care work is much lower than previously believed. There are variations in the nature of work and possibly job security by ethnicity.
Research limitations/implications – While the national sample is large, the data were not purposively collected to examine differentials in reasons to work in the care sector by different ethnicity.
Practical implications – The analysis highlights the potential to actively promote social care work among British BME groups to meet workforce shortages, especially at a time where immigration policies are restricting the recruitment of non-European Economic Area nationals.
Originality/value – The analysis provides a unique insight into the participation of British BME workers in the long-term care sector, separate from that of migrant workers.
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Founder and Director
Shereen Hussein is a Health and Social Care Policy professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), United Kingdom.
Shereen Founded the MENARAH Network in 2019, through an initial grant from the Global Challenge Research Fund, UKRI. She is a medical demographer with expertise in ageing, family dynamics, migration and long-term care systems. Shereen regularly collaborates with the United Nations, the World Health Organisation and the World Bank in policy and research focused on ageing in the Middle East and North Africa Region.
Shereen received her undergraduate degree in statistics and a postgraduate degree in computer science at Cairo University. She completed an MSc in medical demography at the London School of Hygiene and a PhD in quantitative demography and population studies at the London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom.
Director, Analytical Research Ltd, and Affiliate Research Fellow, Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
Mohamed Ismail is a quantitative researcher whose work develops mathematical and computational frameworks to better understand ageing dynamics and long-term care systems, with a particular focus on how time spent in care shapes future demand, costs, and system behaviour.
With a background spanning engineering, computer science, and mathematical finance, he brings a structured, model-based perspective to complex social challenges. His recent research focuses on duration-dependent processes, how individual-level dynamics translate into population-level outcomes, and the development of tractable models of ageing and long-term care.
His recent work includes the development of a new index-based framework for estimating long-term care needs in data-scarce settings, with evidence from the Middle East and North Africa, published in Population Health Metrics in 2026. His research also examines long-term care policies and financing in the region, including how care systems can be integrated into broader economic and social development strategies.
Mohamed began his career as a quantitative analyst with global financial institutions, including Merrill Lynch, HSBC, Mizuho Financial Group, and Credit Suisse, before transitioning to quantitative social research. In 2009, he founded Analytical Research Ltd, applying statistical and mathematical modelling to policy-relevant questions in ageing and care.
He has collaborated with academic and policy institutions across the UK, Europe, Australia, and the Middle East on research spanning population ageing, migration, and long-term care systems. His work appears in peer-reviewed journals and international policy reports, including contributions to reports by the U.S. Census Bureau, United Nations, World Bank, and World Health Organization.
Mohamed has been a core member of the MENARAH Network since 2019, contributing quantitative and interdisciplinary perspectives to research on ageing and long-term care in the Middle East and North Africa.
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