{"id":765,"date":"2020-10-03T10:03:32","date_gmt":"2020-10-03T10:03:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www-menarah-org.kentuniresestg.wpengine.com\/?p=765"},"modified":"2024-01-08T09:34:56","modified_gmt":"2024-01-08T09:34:56","slug":"modelling-the-infection-spread-of-covid-19-in-the-long-term-care-ltc-facilities-of-care-homes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/menarah.org\/ar\/modelling-the-infection-spread-of-covid-19-in-the-long-term-care-ltc-facilities-of-care-homes\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0646\u0645\u0630\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0631 \u0639\u062f\u0648\u0649 \u0643\u0648\u0641\u064a\u062f-19 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0631\u0627\u0641\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0639\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062c\u0644 (LTC) \u0641\u064a \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0639\u0627\u064a\u0629"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0648\u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0630\u0631\u0648\u0629 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\u0627\u0644\u0645\u063a\u0644\u0642\u0629 \u0645\u062b\u0644 \u0648\u0648\u0647\u0627\u0646 \u0648\u0634\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0625\u064a\u0637\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0627 \u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0644 \u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0634\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u064b\u0627 \u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0639\u0627\u064a\u0629.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button has-custom-font-size gb-block-button\" style=\"font-size:20px;line-height:1.2\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ageing.ox.ac.uk\/blog\/modelling%20Covid-19-infection-spread-in-care-homes\" 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However, the lack of modelling of the disease infection in these LTC facilities left the interpretation of numbers to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":768,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,5],"tags":[26,40,44,67,83],"class_list":["post-765","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-blogs","category-international_learning","tag-26","tag-care-homes","tag-covid19","tag-infection","tag-modelling"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Modelling the infection spread of Covid-19 in the Long Term Care (LTC) facilities of care homes - Menarah<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/menarah.org\/ar\/modelling-the-infection-spread-of-covid-19-in-the-long-term-care-ltc-facilities-of-care-homes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ar_AR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Modelling the infection spread of Covid-19 in the Long Term Care (LTC) facilities of care homes - Menarah\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"During the peak of the first wave of Covid-19, Europe has suffered a large number of care homes\u2019 deaths due to Covid-19 infections. &nbsp;Several media coverages claimed the death toll could be attributed to governments polices. However, the lack of modelling of the disease infection in these LTC facilities left the interpretation of numbers to [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/menarah.org\/ar\/modelling-the-infection-spread-of-covid-19-in-the-long-term-care-ltc-facilities-of-care-homes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Menarah\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-10-03T10:03:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-01-08T09:34:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/menarah.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/shutterstock_1826312300-scaled-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1707\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Mohamed Ismail\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u0643\u064f\u062a\u0628 \u0628\u0648\u0627\u0633\u0637\u0629\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Mohamed Ismail\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u0648\u0642\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0621\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u064f\u0642\u062f\u0651\u0631\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"\u062f\u0642\u064a\u0642\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u062d\u062f\u0629\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/menarah.org\\\/modelling-the-infection-spread-of-covid-19-in-the-long-term-care-ltc-facilities-of-care-homes\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/menarah.org\\\/modelling-the-infection-spread-of-covid-19-in-the-long-term-care-ltc-facilities-of-care-homes\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Mohamed Ismail\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/menarah.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/019d8dc00484ab5d5430f621a642218e\"},\"headline\":\"Modelling the infection spread of Covid-19 in the Long Term Care (LTC) facilities of care homes\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-10-03T10:03:32+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-01-08T09:34:56+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/menarah.org\\\/modelling-the-infection-spread-of-covid-19-in-the-long-term-care-ltc-facilities-of-care-homes\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":196,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/menarah.org\\\/modelling-the-infection-spread-of-covid-19-in-the-long-term-care-ltc-facilities-of-care-homes\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/menarah.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/10\\\/shutterstock_1826312300-scaled-1.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"2020\",\"Care Homes\",\"COVID19\",\"Infection\",\"Modelling\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Blogs\",\"Learning from the International Experience\"],\"inLanguage\":\"ar\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/menarah.org\\\/modelling-the-infection-spread-of-covid-19-in-the-long-term-care-ltc-facilities-of-care-homes\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/menarah.org\\\/modelling-the-infection-spread-of-covid-19-in-the-long-term-care-ltc-facilities-of-care-homes\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/menarah.org\\\/modelling-the-infection-spread-of-covid-19-in-the-long-term-care-ltc-facilities-of-care-homes\\\/\",\"name\":\"Modelling the infection spread of Covid-19 in the Long Term Care (LTC) facilities of care homes - 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With a background spanning engineering, computer science, and mathematical finance, he brings a structured, model-based perspective to complex social challenges. His recent research focuses on duration-dependent processes, how individual-level dynamics translate into population-level outcomes, and the development of tractable models of ageing and long-term care. His recent work includes the development of a new index-based framework for estimating long-term care needs in data-scarce settings, with evidence from the Middle East and North Africa, published in\u00a0Population Health Metrics\u00a0in 2026. His research also examines long-term care policies and financing in the region, including how care systems can be integrated into broader economic and social development strategies. Mohamed began his career as a quantitative analyst with global financial institutions, including Merrill Lynch, HSBC, Mizuho Financial Group, and Credit Suisse, before transitioning to quantitative social research. In 2009, he founded Analytical Research Ltd, applying statistical and mathematical modelling to policy-relevant questions in ageing and care. He has collaborated with academic and policy institutions across the UK, Europe, Australia, and the Middle East on research spanning population ageing, migration, and long-term care systems. His work appears in peer-reviewed journals and international policy reports, including contributions to reports by the U.S. Census Bureau, United Nations, World Bank, and World Health Organization. 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With a background spanning engineering, computer science, and mathematical finance, he brings a structured, model-based perspective to complex social challenges. His recent research focuses on duration-dependent processes, how individual-level dynamics translate into population-level outcomes, and the development of tractable models of ageing and long-term care. His recent work includes the development of a new index-based framework for estimating long-term care needs in data-scarce settings, with evidence from the Middle East and North Africa, published in\u00a0Population Health Metrics\u00a0in 2026. His research also examines long-term care policies and financing in the region, including how care systems can be integrated into broader economic and social development strategies. Mohamed began his career as a quantitative analyst with global financial institutions, including Merrill Lynch, HSBC, Mizuho Financial Group, and Credit Suisse, before transitioning to quantitative social research. In 2009, he founded Analytical Research Ltd, applying statistical and mathematical modelling to policy-relevant questions in ageing and care. He has collaborated with academic and policy institutions across the UK, Europe, Australia, and the Middle East on research spanning population ageing, migration, and long-term care systems. His work appears in peer-reviewed journals and international policy reports, including contributions to reports by the U.S. Census Bureau, United Nations, World Bank, and World Health Organization. Mohamed has been a core member of the MENARAH Network since 2019, contributing quantitative and interdisciplinary perspectives to research on ageing and long-term care in the Middle East and North Africa.","url":"https:\/\/menarah.org\/ar\/author\/mohamedismail\/"}]}},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/menarah.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/shutterstock_1826312300-scaled-1-600x400.jpg","featured_image_src_square":"https:\/\/menarah.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/shutterstock_1826312300-scaled-1-600x600.jpg","author_info":{"display_name":"Mohamed Ismail","author_link":"https:\/\/menarah.org\/ar\/author\/mohamedismail\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/menarah.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/765","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/menarah.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/menarah.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/menarah.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/menarah.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=765"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/menarah.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/765\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1483,"href":"https:\/\/menarah.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/765\/revisions\/1483"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/menarah.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/768"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/menarah.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=765"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/menarah.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=765"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/menarah.org\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=765"}],"curies":[{"name":"\u0648\u0648\u0631\u062f\u0628\u0631\u064a\u0633","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}